Alex Daredia
Watson Realty | Broker-Associate | DRE #02035436
383+ homes sold across Kern & Tulare County. Former banking professional turned Broker-Associate, specializing in strategic pricing, investment analysis, and creative financing.
The San Joaquin Valley real estate market continues to defy the expectations of coastal analysts who predicted a broad California correction. While some higher-priced markets have softened, the Central Valley's fundamentals — affordable prices, strong population growth, and constrained supply — have kept our market resilient and, in many areas, still appreciating.
As someone who closes transactions across multiple Central Valley cities every month, I want to share the ground-level reality of what is happening in our market as we move through 2025.
The days of 15 to 20 percent annual appreciation are behind us, and that is a healthy development. Across the Central Valley, year-over-year price growth has settled into a sustainable 3.5 to 5.5 percent range. This pace rewards long-term owners and investors without creating the affordability crises seen in coastal markets.
Active listings across the valley remain approximately 25 to 30 percent below the 10-year average. New construction has increased but cannot keep pace with demand, particularly for homes priced below $400,000. This supply-demand imbalance continues to support prices and limit days on market for well-priced listings.
Mortgage rates in the 6.5 to 7.0 percent range have become the new normal. While higher rates have reduced purchasing power compared to the sub-3-percent era, the Central Valley is better positioned to absorb this impact than expensive metros because our base prices are lower. A $350,000 home at 6.75 percent is still more affordable than a $700,000 home at 5.5 percent — and that math continues to drive migration into the valley.
The Central Valley continues to receive net in-migration from the Bay Area, Los Angeles, and other high-cost regions. Remote work, retirement downsizing, and simple affordability are driving families who can sell a two-bedroom condo in the Bay Area for $800,000 and purchase a four-bedroom home with a pool here for less than half that amount.
Bakersfield remains the anchor market of the southern San Joaquin Valley. The west-side neighborhoods (Seven Oaks, Riverlakes, Rosedale) are seeing the strongest appreciation at 5 to 7 percent annually, while the east side and downtown have stabilized after post-pandemic gains. The energy sector's relative stability in 2025 has supported employment and consumer confidence.
Notable trend: new construction in the northwest and southwest corridors is absorbing some demand, but entry-level inventory (below $350,000) remains critically low. First-time buyers in this range face competition on most listings.
Visalia has the tightest inventory of any Central Valley city I track. With only 280 active listings for a metro of nearly 150,000 people, competition is fierce. The northwest corridor continues to attract new development, but demand consistently outpaces supply. Visalia's proximity to Sequoia National Park and its charming downtown continue to attract Bay Area transplants.
Porterville offers one of the best value propositions in the valley. Located at the foothills of the Sierra Nevada, the city provides a smaller-town feel with reasonable access to Visalia (30 minutes) and Bakersfield (70 minutes). The market has seen steady but not spectacular growth, making it attractive for investors seeking cash flow and buyers seeking maximum square footage per dollar.
The city of Tulare, located between Visalia and the dairy-rich southern Tulare County, benefits from spillover demand from Visalia buyers seeking lower prices. The new Cartmill Avenue corridor has become the city's growth engine, with new retail, restaurants, and residential development. I am seeing increased investor interest in Tulare as rent-to-price ratios outperform Visalia.
Hanford is the sleeper market of the Central Valley. The county seat of Kings County offers a historic downtown, strong community feel, and prices that remain below neighboring Visalia and Bakersfield. The Naval Air Station Lemoore, located 20 minutes west, provides a steady source of military housing demand and VA loan activity.
Based on current trends and the economic indicators I track, here is my forecast for the second half of 2025:
Buyers: The market is competitive but not frenzied. Get pre-approved, work with a local agent who knows where the value is, and be prepared to move quickly on the right property. My buyer services are designed to give you an edge.
Sellers: You are still in a favorable position, but overpricing will cost you. The market rewards accurate pricing with fast sales at full price or above. My listing services include the market analysis and preparation strategy to maximize your sale price.
Investors: The Central Valley remains one of the best cash-flow markets in California. Focus on quality locations, realistic underwriting, and long-term holds. Let me help you find your next deal.
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